(credit to the AHI)
California wine is dead. I guess like living dead. No, maybe like on its death bed dead. High-end Australian wines- now those are dead-dead, but high-end CA wine as we know it, may collapse soon.
For years, people have been enamored, charmed, and wowed by the CA style-- BALCO-like, BIG fruit, thick juice, lots of Sugar, High Alc, teeth staining, out of whack. purple people eaters....
The bigger, badder, and smaller production the more money people would spend. So the wines got bigger, badder, and prices soared. High-end CA Cabs started north of $80 a bottle last year and climbed high into the hundreds. Boutique Pinot, Syrah, and Zinfandel followed close behind.
So now we have a perfect storm of economic armageddon, palate fatigue, and a new, rapidly growing, generation of wine drinkers that are spending money, but who are not sold on the big CA style. In many of these high-end wines, this new generation sees the oenological equivalent or The Real Housewives of Orange County, or the dudes from Sunset Tan.
There are so many good (and GREAT) CA wines out there. But lines are starting to blur, and to some, they are as similar as any season's current lineup of reality shows- People live in a house, compete for a stud or babe, throw drinks, have an intervention. and someone shows keeps showing their snapper.
Why are the wines coming off as the same? Miracles of modern science.
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Ask any retailer- Wine drinkers are spending less on wine, and many are buying downstream from where they were before. High-end buyers do not look to California for value wines. Instead they look to other regions for similar tasting, like-styled wines at a lower price. There are countless of offerings from Argentina, Spain, and even the Rhone that will satisfy these buyers demand for big, sweet, high alc%, skullcrushing juice.
But there is a rapidly growing, new generation of drinkers that find this "International Style" wine as appealing as visiting TGI Fridays while in some far off land. They want authenticity, they want to travel in their glass, like can now do at the table. Even if the economy comes back and blasts through the roof, these drinkers are not sold on the current premium California wine world.
Amy at mydailywine tweeted link to an article from Winebusiness.com - When discussing a tough year, look what they say about Gen-X and Millenial drinkers consumption in 2008.
"The greatest growth and the most optimistic conclusions from the survey come from millenials, ages 15 to 32. They and the generation-Xers accounted for what Gillespie described as "stunning growth in the core wine-drinking population." In 2008, nearly half of the millennial segment reported a net 23 percent increase in wine consumption--double that of generation-Xers against minimal or declining figures for the aging baby boomers. Gillespie described this trend as a "trade-off" phenomenon, where better than 10 percent of wine drinkers, primarily generation-Xers, are increasing total wine consumption at the expense of beer and spirits."
"The millennials, Gillespie suggested, are the future of the wine industry, and their numbers are increasing as younger members reach drinking age. They are the most optimistic about the economy and their wine consumption continues to rise...." "The report shows that millennials overwhelmingly associate wine with fun times. Millennials are also significantly more likely than older generations to purchase wines costing $20 or more, and they visit wine bars more frequently than those in older age groups."
These people are not actively seeking out California juice.
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For high-end wine in California to survive, it needs to change. These big gym-rat, lab-rat, wines won't cut it- people get no sense of place, and with good science, fruit, and equipment, than can easily be replaced by similar juice from other regions. California isn't in this alone-- pricey Italian Super-Tuscans and high-end Spanish wines are going to wake up without a market too.
It is impossible to move quickly in wine. We'll see in the year or two, who was thinking ahead, and which wineries will separate themselves (both in bottle and perception) from rest of the pack. Again, look to Australia and what has happened to their high-end market. The good fell along with the uglies. (I hope I'm wrong about the good in CA)
